rapture_ni
Member
The fella I follow for the racing has done yet another write up.. I'll share it below.
In hindsight I made the cardinal sin of backing a load of non-stayers in The Grand National last week. I got too wrapped up in running style and wanting to avoid hold up horses I forgot about the main ingredient every National winner needs - stamina. Indeed, the two horses who fought out the finish Cause Of Causes and One For Arthur along with The Last Samuri were probably the only guaranteed stayers in the field and they were both very getable.
With that in mind my shortlist for The Irish National on Monday is at present OUR DUKE 6/1, FLETCHER'S FLYER 12/1 and TIGER ROLL 16/1.
OUR DUKE owes me £100 - that was how much I had on him ante post for the RSA, or rather his connections owe me. They didn't want to give him a hard race at Cheltenham and protect him for next year. That plan doesn't sit well with me - How can an 8 runner RSA over 3m be more damaging than a 30 runner handicap over 3m 5f in The Irish Nash? He's a bit short at 6/1 for this but I'll have some sort of saver on him.
Why is TIGER ROLL 16/1? Seriously, could someone explain this to me? He tanked round Cheltenham carrying 11.6 and won the 4 miler without coming off the bridle. He's only carrying 11.2 in this handicap, we know he stays 4m so he'll have no problem with 3.5m, he'll get the good ground he needs and he's trained by Gordon Elliot.
He's a 2 time Cheltenham Festival winner and he's still improving at the age of 7. I think he should be 2nd favourite.
The one worry with both OD and TR is their jumping. Neither has fallen in their career but they do tend to belt the odd fences. TIGER's spotlight comment after Cheltenham was "hit 8th, blundered 18th, hit 20th, soon clear at last, even further clear after the last"
The DUKE had similar comments in his last couple of races but he was never stronger than at the finish both times and he really should win with a clear round. Man of the moment Robbie Power will be doing the steering and there isn't a more confident jockey in the weighting room right now, well maybe Ruby Walsh.
Back him on the day though, he'll be a bigger price.
FLETCHER'S FLYER 12/1 is the other one I like at the minute. He won at the Punchestown Festival over 3m 6f last year after which his trainer Harry Fry said "He jumps and stays. He's still a novice in Britain next season but we can look at some National for him"
Anyone who knows Harry Fry knows he is the most patient trainer in racing. He had 3 Nationals available - The English, Scottish or Irish. FLETCHER'S FLYER needs to go right handed and therefore it made sense to aim him at the only right handed track Fairyhouse.
This has been the plan for a long time. Noel Fehily takes the ride and he should sit just behind the leaders and pounce late. Jumping shouldn't be an issue for this lad.
There are loads of old favourites in here. Noble Endeavour and Abolitionist have both landed us big pots this season. Shutthefrontdoor, Bonny Kate and Foxrock have done likewise in the past but you can't back em all.
I don't have a staking plan at the minute because Our Duke will surely be a bigger price on the day. I wouldn't put anyone off having some 16/1 TIGER ROLL now. That price will only go in one direction!
In hindsight I made the cardinal sin of backing a load of non-stayers in The Grand National last week. I got too wrapped up in running style and wanting to avoid hold up horses I forgot about the main ingredient every National winner needs - stamina. Indeed, the two horses who fought out the finish Cause Of Causes and One For Arthur along with The Last Samuri were probably the only guaranteed stayers in the field and they were both very getable.
With that in mind my shortlist for The Irish National on Monday is at present OUR DUKE 6/1, FLETCHER'S FLYER 12/1 and TIGER ROLL 16/1.
OUR DUKE owes me £100 - that was how much I had on him ante post for the RSA, or rather his connections owe me. They didn't want to give him a hard race at Cheltenham and protect him for next year. That plan doesn't sit well with me - How can an 8 runner RSA over 3m be more damaging than a 30 runner handicap over 3m 5f in The Irish Nash? He's a bit short at 6/1 for this but I'll have some sort of saver on him.
Why is TIGER ROLL 16/1? Seriously, could someone explain this to me? He tanked round Cheltenham carrying 11.6 and won the 4 miler without coming off the bridle. He's only carrying 11.2 in this handicap, we know he stays 4m so he'll have no problem with 3.5m, he'll get the good ground he needs and he's trained by Gordon Elliot.
He's a 2 time Cheltenham Festival winner and he's still improving at the age of 7. I think he should be 2nd favourite.
The one worry with both OD and TR is their jumping. Neither has fallen in their career but they do tend to belt the odd fences. TIGER's spotlight comment after Cheltenham was "hit 8th, blundered 18th, hit 20th, soon clear at last, even further clear after the last"
The DUKE had similar comments in his last couple of races but he was never stronger than at the finish both times and he really should win with a clear round. Man of the moment Robbie Power will be doing the steering and there isn't a more confident jockey in the weighting room right now, well maybe Ruby Walsh.
Back him on the day though, he'll be a bigger price.
FLETCHER'S FLYER 12/1 is the other one I like at the minute. He won at the Punchestown Festival over 3m 6f last year after which his trainer Harry Fry said "He jumps and stays. He's still a novice in Britain next season but we can look at some National for him"
Anyone who knows Harry Fry knows he is the most patient trainer in racing. He had 3 Nationals available - The English, Scottish or Irish. FLETCHER'S FLYER needs to go right handed and therefore it made sense to aim him at the only right handed track Fairyhouse.
This has been the plan for a long time. Noel Fehily takes the ride and he should sit just behind the leaders and pounce late. Jumping shouldn't be an issue for this lad.
There are loads of old favourites in here. Noble Endeavour and Abolitionist have both landed us big pots this season. Shutthefrontdoor, Bonny Kate and Foxrock have done likewise in the past but you can't back em all.
I don't have a staking plan at the minute because Our Duke will surely be a bigger price on the day. I wouldn't put anyone off having some 16/1 TIGER ROLL now. That price will only go in one direction!
